Renault announced a ‘significantly positive FCF’ for 1H09, despite an expected loss. European performance remains greatly disappointing. 1H09 sales decline -16.5%; rate of decline halved qoq to 11.0% in 2Q09.
Car market is set for an extended V-shaped recession. Our baseline scenario of an 11.7% correction to 11.68m in 2010 is based on the assumption that the schemes in Italy and France will be extended into part of 2010, the German scheme will expire at year-end as planned, and that car manufacturers will continue to aggressively discount.
Peugeot – looking for a suitable partner. Industrial logic of three-way merger Fiat-Chrysler-PSA has more negatives than positives.
Group headline results worse than expected: BMW incurred a EUR 1.2bn pre-tax loss in 4Q08 and reported a EUR 351m profit (0.7% margin) in FY08.
Chrysler losses depress group EBIT and earnings. Mercedes-Benz Cars incurs 4Q08 loss from operations.