It was just a week ago that we wrote how one can’t allow fears of a black swan event to worry oneself into inaction. We acknowledged the political uncertainty hanging over the market, noting that it would be resolved when voters went to the polls on November 8th. But what if it isn’t?
The better than expected 2.9% annualized gain in third-quarter GDP will provide all the justification that the Fed needs to raise rates in December.
Economic focus in the US next week is on the FOMC meeting. Consensus is that the
Fed Fund rate will remain at 0.25%-0. 50%, but the Federal Reserve will give a clear
signal about increasing the Fed Fund rate by 0.25% at its December meeting. Other US economic reports are expected to confirm that the US economy is growing at a slow but steady rate.
The U.S. economy and the broader influences of the global economy don’t justify a rate hike now or in December, but the Fed is caught in a trap of its own making.
The time to buy into capital goods, mining, and railroad and energy stocks has never been better than right now.We continue recommending for investors to buy commodities such as crude oil and gold.
As per our 2016 Global Investment Outlook & Strategy which we published last
year in December, when comparing Real Assets versus Financial Assets, the
following chart shows that real assets are at all-time lows versus financial assets.
The time to buy into capital goods, mining, and railroad and energy stocks has
never been better than right now.
In the Americas, US CPI core inflation fell to 2.2% y-o-y in September from 2.3% y-o-y in August. The Fed’s preferred measure for inflation is PCE core inflation, which has been running below the 2% target for 52 consecutive months and the upcoming September figure will make it 53 months.
In the Americas, the US FED has grossly overestimated growth rates of the economy, and it appears that it the economic growth has slows down considerably. We start seeing in various leading indicators for the November and December 2016 data to likely be worsening.
Again, the way we continue seeing it, the macro climate in both the US and most
of the G-10 countries is still fading, global trade still depressed, and capacity
global utilization still well under 70%, we see no rational reason as to why the
FED should raise rates this year, or in 2017.
In the Americas, investors in the US are awaiting the minutes of the FOMC meeting are supposed to show the FED taking a clearer stand on when they are going to raise rates. The market is getting more convinced, one more time, like it did for the past 2 years so many times, only to be wrong, over and over again. The odds of a December rate hike increased yet again to 74.5% from 69.5%. The odds of two hikes increased from 5.5% to 7.4%.
The period of uncertainty for world equity markets continues. Many equity markets,
commodities and primary sectors have returned to the top of their trading range
previously reached in mid-July. Establishment of another intermediate uptrend is
unlikely prior to the US Presidential election on November 8th. Prospects following the Presidential election are positive. Seasonal influences begin to change in the month of October.
The period of uncertainty for world equity markets continues. Many equity markets,
commodities and primary sectors have returned to the top of their trading range
previously reached in mid-July. Establishment of another intermediate uptrend is
unlikely prior to the US Presidential election on November 8th.Prospects following the Presidential election are positive.
As highlighted in our 2016 Global Investment Strategy & Outlook, the global macro fundamentals had been slowing as we anticipated, and consequently Central Banks in the US, Japan and Europe have been adding liquidity to dampen the slowdown. Contrary to most “sell-side” big firms, which had been predicting 4 rate hikes by the FED in 2016 (GS, JPM, UBS, DB to name just a few) besides “buy-siders” (of the likes of Bill Gross/Pimco/Janus, Mohammed El Erian/Allianz and too many others to name).
The WTO estimated global trade volume is set to grow just 1.7 percent in 2016, a much lower forecast compared with April’s 2.8%. It marks the first time in 15 years that international commerce has grown more slowly than the world economy. World trade has been in decline since 2H 2014 (totally coincides with the parabolic rise of the US$ since June 2014).
Not a lot of substance on differentiation of both candidates’ 4-year economic and socio-political pans. One hour into the debate, the candidates had failed communicating their priorities. There’s been no “on my first day in office …” or “the first bill I’ll sign …” or other similar promises. Trump is most animated about trade and immigration, but it’s harder to tell which issue, if any, Clinton is putting at the center of her campaign. The only noteworthy difference between both candidates highlighted in last nights debate was when they debated how to grow jobs and incomes; Trump mentioned cutting regulation, while Clinton vowed to boost manufacturing jobs; both touted their tax and trade policies.
Slower than consensus economic news from the US, Japan, Brazil and smaller parts of Europe last week proved to be good news for markets. Additionally, as we were
expecting, the Federal Reserve decision to maintain the Fed Fund rate at .25%-0.50% on Wednesday afternoon boosted equity, commodity and bond prices. Economic news this week is expected to confirm an additional slowdown in US economic growth in Q3.
As an immediate reaction to no policy change by the FED, we see the US$ on the precipice of needing to deflate. All the arguments and hopes and hypes which propelled the US$ to its “temporary parabolic rise in 2014” are no longer in place at this time, and surely looking out over the next 12 – 18 months:
The FED’s decision to keep rates unchanged comes to no surprise to us, as we have been forecasting that the FED would not raise rates at all in 2016, mainly due to evidence in our research that the US economy in aggregate was slowing since October 2015, and now since Q2 of 2016 on an accelerating basis.
The OECD announced today it cut its forecasts for global and US growth.
OECD now expects global economy to grow 2.9% this year, down from forecast of
3.0% in June.
We’ve opined that the only way a coordinated production freeze can be reached is
if the major producers become convinced that they [and all the others] were maxed
out on capacity—making the implementation of a production freeze totally
The period of increased volatility and increasing weakness for world equity
markets continues until the end of October.
Federal Reserve officials continue to gauge financial markets by controversial policy speak. Equity markets moved sharply lower on Friday on “hawkish” comments on the Fed Fund rate by Eric Rosengren. Then yesterday “dovish” officials, such as Fed Governor Brainard were implying less of a chance for an increase in the Fed Fund rate. This is the perfect parody for global financial markets.Just imagine corporate executives acting like FED officials, and coming out with controversial statements about earnings expectations all the time, this would lead to serious SEC/FAC investigations on conflicts of interest. Or just imagine another foreign central Bank, like the ECB, or BoJ or the Central Bank of China to “mislead” financial markets the way that the FED is. Unimaginable.
WTI crude oil has failed to hold its pivot point ($44.73) on the weekly chart. Support exists around $41 on both the weekly and daily charts but if support fails to hold (and we believe that it won’t), WTI crude oil is immediately vulnerable technically to the mid-$30’s.
We continue advising investors to reduce equities exposure and buy instead 10-
Year and 30-Year US treasuries into the weakest 2 months for equities ahead.
What are we likely to see in the aftermath of Brexit?
The many implications for monetary policy can all be distilled down to one simple
thought: continued accommodative monetary policy by central banks globally.
“Brexit shock waves” continue to rattle all asset classes globally. We see conceptionally no asset class and no geographic area not to be impacted by the outcome of the referendum. Brexit is expected to continue to impact equity markets negatively this week. Precious metals and precious metal equities and ETFs are the exception. This is the season for higher volatility and lower equity markets until just before US Presidential election day.
Global bond yields plumbed new levels on Friday when concerns over global
growth re-emerged after the World Bank announced that it was cutting its global
growth forecast from January yet again—this time from 2.9% to 2.4% for 2016 and
from 3.1% to 2.8% for 2017.
Pessimism remains the dominant theme on Financials, with sentiment readings on
Insurance hitting a two-year low and Banks firmly entrenched at the low-end of their
historic sentiment range versus the market.
As we said before over the past 4 weeks, something has to give. And as of yesterday, it is the 10-Year treasuries that have started to break out, and the yield breaking support at 1,70% will likely go down towards our 2016 target of 1,40%. All short term technical indicators for the $TNX are in declining trends, RSI, MACD, 20-, 50- and 200-day moving averages.
The continuing weakness in the US$ Index helped commodities and US equity prices to rise yesterday.
This year’s Memorial Day, Americans are enjoying “most memorable low gas prices” for the start of the summer driving season in over a decade, with the weighted average price of regular gas is $2.30 per gallon, -17% lower than this time last year.
We are advising investors to buy US 10-Year and 30-year treasuries at current
levels, as we do expect the traditional “Sell in May & Go Away” for equities to
have a significant affect in 2016.
Muted 1Q16 EBIT results are EUR 1.76bn/9.4% for the Automotive segment and EUR 2.46bn/11.8% for the group. In 2016E-18E, we expect EPS to grow at a CAGR of 3.1% and reach EUR 10.63 in FY18E. Our YE16 target price of EUR 93 implies a 26% upside potential for BMW shares.
Global equities have passed their peak of annual seasonal strength on May 11th,
we are advising investors to aggressively sell Chinese, Japanese, US and EU
equities immediately, as many macro-economic, geo-political and political risks
will likely rise over the next 2 – 4 months into the summer.
The short-term technical outlook for AAPL is negative, RSI and MACD are negative, and so are the 14-day, 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The head-and-shoulders topping pattern that became confirmed upon the break below the neckline around $107 had a first downside target of around $83, however, inherently increasing risks are for AAPL to test support at the open gap charted two years ago of $71.
The Energy Information Administration reported a surprise drawdown in energy commodities, sending prices higher. The EIA reported that oil inventories declined by 3.4MN barrels, while gasoline inventories declined by 1.2MN barrels. The days of supply of each ticked lower as oil enters a period where demand typically outpaces production; the increased demand typically results in a decline in oil inventories between mid-May and the end of September, bookending the summer driving season.
We suggest trimming equity exposure by taking profits in those sectors that have
outperformed over the past three months such as materials, mining and
industrials to build cash levels.
The bear market for global equities is well alive and showing its claws one more time. Since December, we were warning of an initial equities rout in Q1 of the magnitude of -12% to -15%, we have seen increasing deterioration of both the technical outlook for global equities, and similarly for the fundamental (macro; earnings, valuations, DDM; political environment and geo-political risks) outlook and support for global equities.
Global equities have reached their peak of annual seasonal strength in late April/mid May, we are advising investors to aggressively sell Chinese, Japanese, US and EU equities immediately, as many macro-economic, geo-political and political risks will likely rise over the next 2 – 4 months into the summer.
The US$ broke significant support and confirms an important topping pattern. The US$ remains below previous support of 93 that was broken during Monday’s session. Short-term (3 months), we are expecting for the US$ to decline towards 88.
Now that global equities have reached their peak of annual seasonal strength in
late April/mid May, we are advising investors to be aggressively selling Chinese,
Japanese, US and EU equities, as many macro-economic, earnings outlook and
geo-political risks will rise over the next 2 – 4 months into the summer.
The significance of “Brexit” and its consequences on financial markets will surely intensify over the next 2 months. We are expecting volatility in all UK and EU asset classes, be it Foreign Exchange, Fixed Income and Equities to rise significantly before June 23rd.
AAPL shares fell more than -8% after the close in NY yesterday, to about $96 this morning in Frankfurt, and below our January 27th “Sell” on APL at $ 99.99. We reiterate our “Sell” on AAPL at the current price of $96/share.
Economic focus this week is on the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. Consensus is that the Federal Reserve will maintain the Fed Fund Rate at 0.25-0.50%. However, the bond market began to respond last week to anticipation of message by the Fed that it plans to increase the Fed Fund rate soon based on incremental evidence that slow US economic growth is accelerating.
Investment opinion – BUY: Based on historic P/E valuation, we calculate a target price of EUR 81 for YE2016E, implying a 23% upside from the current share price. The new TP is 3.2% above our previous TP (of EUR 79) of February 2nd. The chart- technical outlook for Daimler shares is negative. (See pp.14-15.)
In the US, Housing starts gave a disappointing glimpse into an area of the economy that is typically strong into the spring. Housing starts declined by -8.8% in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.089 MN, below consensus forecast of 1.167 MN.
Financial leaders from the G-20 nations said on Friday they were heartened by a recent recovery in financial markets, but warned that global growth was “modest and uneven” and threatened by weakness in commodities-based economies
Oil demand/supply balance is starting to adjust, pretty much as we were predicting in our 2016 Global Investment Strategy Outlook that it would by the beginning of the summer 2016.
One phenomenon that should worry investors in US equities is the fact that corporate debt to income is at extremely high levels with the ratio of non-financial corporate debt to national income is nearly 45%, an elevated reading that suggests corporate balance sheets are not in particularly good shape as non-financial US companies have added nearly $2 TRN in debt to their books since 2008.
In the US, the US federal budget balance rose less-than-expected last month, official data today in a report by the Department of the Treasury showed that US federal budget balance rose to a seasonally adjusted US$ -108.0BN, from US$-193.0BN in the preceding month (vs. economists’ consensus to rise to US$ -104.0B last month).
Global data: “Weak foreign economic conditions, a persistently high exchange value of the US$ and tighter financial conditions—will continue to restrain US economic growth for a time and thus collectively imply a temporarily low level for the neutral rate of interest.” Central bank limit: “financial market turbulence provided an important reminder that the ability of central banks to offset the effects of adverse economic shocks might be limited, particularly by the low level of policy interest rates in most advanced economies.”
In the short run the absolute level of economic activity is lower than it should be, with financial market finding it hard to advance much further without concrete proof that the economy is truly healthy. Members of the Federal Open Market Committee were concerned about the threat of slower global growth and low inflation when they voted to keep interest rates unchanged last month, the minutes of the central bank’s March 15-16 meeting revealed. Several also cautioned against an increase in April, saying it was signal a sense of urgency about the US economy that they did not think appropriate.
Over the past 50 years, the S&P 500 Index has closed higher in April 70% of the time, averaging a gain of 1.5%. Historically, the first trading day in April is one of the strongest days of the year for the S&P 500 Index. During the past 20 periods, the S&P 500 Index gained 0.8% per period. A major reason is money flows entering the equity market coming from pension plans on the first trading day of Q2.
Yesterday, it took just a few simple words from Fed Chair Janet Yellen to flip the “on” switch for risk-on assets yesterday. “Global developments have increased the risks” to the outlook and “given the risks, I consider it appropriate for the FOMC to proceed cautiously.” This does not come as a surprise to us. We had been forecasting for 2 years now, (aside the obvious December FED policy mistake) that there are currently no macro-economically based reasons for the FED or any major global central banks to feel pressured to raise rates, and we do not see any pressures to do so rising in the 6 – 12 months time horizon.
According to the latest sentix investors’ survey, markets are less nervous on Chinese equities from a medium-term strategic perspective in recent weeks, albeit survey readings remain well down on twelve-month highs. This chimes with a wider revival in sentiment towards Emerging Equity Markets as an asset class, as well as a more upbeat view among survey participants on the outlook for Commodities.
In the US, the Federal Reserve left the target range for the benchmark federal funds rate unchanged at 0.25% to 0.5%, as widely expected, and scaled back its forecasts on the path of interest rates. The Fed, which lifted interest rates for the first time in nearly a decade back in December, said rate rises this year would be more gradual than expected, with two on the cards versus the four projected at the end of last year.
In the US, all eyes will be on this weeks’ FOMC meeting. We are not expecting for the FED to make a change to the current rates. Nevertheless, we see the Federal Reserve is the scariest of all Central Banks. Particularly, as they failed to adequately gauge US macro shifts and reacted with incorrect policy decisions subsequently.
Investors did fear that further momentary accommodation could weigh a bit on the Euro, however, as we have been writing in the past 6 weeks, most of the Euro’s negative sentiment is backed into the cake, and we see the EUR/US$ to hold the next support level of 1,0680.
The global economy is heading for a storm as faith in policymakers dwindles, according to a stark warning from one of the world’s most respected financial institutions. The uneasy calm in financial markets last year has given way to turbulence, the Bank for International Settlements, known as the central bank for the world’s central banks, said in its latest quarterly report
Global light vehicle markets
+2% in January
Global equity markets rebounded moderated over the past week. The UK’s FTSE 100 was the top performer, up 2.45%. The Shanghai Composite Index was the biggest loser, down 3.25%. India’s SENSEX 30 was the other index with a weekly loss, down 2.34%. Six of eight-index world watch list posted gains, but the average of the eight was only 0.47%, a sharp decline from the 4.51% average of the previous week.
Over in the US, Q4 GDP was marked up slightly to 1%, but that was mainly because of a bigger stockpiling of inventories that could weigh on the economy in early 2016, and reflects a slowdown in growth that set in during the waning months of 2015. The US grew 2.4% for the second year in a row, failing to reach 3% for the 10th straight year. We see the outlook for 2016 deteriorating further. Economists predict the US will stick to its current rate of growth, held in check by a strong dollar, weak exports and slack business investment. We maintain our 2016 target of 1.6% for the US GDP.
We stand firmly to our point that the December FED rate hike was a policy mistake proven by the increasing volatility and deterioration in asset prices in the world since. Hence why we do not expect the FED to continue in 2016 with further tightening, on the contrary, as we do expect the US economy to show a negative GDP print in either the current quarter, possibly also in Q2, we are anticipating for the FED to resume its QE program later in 2016.
This morning the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development cut its global growth forecast for 2016 from 3.3% to 3.0% and warned that some emerging markets are at risk of exchange-rate volatility. The downgrade in forecasts is broadly due to disappointing incoming data for Q4 of 2015 and the recent weakness and volatility in global financial markets, which are affecting some emerging markets are particularly vulnerable to sharp exchange-rate movements and the effects of high domestic debt. The OECD’s revised global growth outlook is still to optimistic in our view, and we are expecting for major organizations like the OECD and IMF to continue to downgrade global GDP over time to our forecasted 2.4% levels for 2016.
Global credit analysis has been a much better gauge for financial market analysis for the past 4 decades. Although our firm’s balance of experience and expertise is stemming from equity markets and products, we have been applying a more asset class agnostic research mantra, being totally currency and financial asset category agnostic. Over the past 13 years in particular, we have taken more and more lead from the credit side, and it has helped us and our clients to be ahead of the herd, particularly when it comes to global asset allocation recommendations and making clear alpha choices.
The Federal Reserve has gone to great lengths to assure the public that the contemplated rise in interest rates will be gradual while the overall tenor of monetary policy remains accommodative. As proof, the Fed points to its balance sheet that hasn’t shrunk in size by continually rolling over maturing debt on its books. But if that’s so, why has the market been in such disarray since December’s rate hike? After all, liquidity is the lifeblood of the market and if liquidity is not being constrained shouldn’t risk assets continue to levitate higher? We believe that they would if that last statement was true. In reality, de facto tightening has been underway as liquidity is being drained from the system.
Over the past ten days, the risk perception has shifted from the Energy & Oil sector toward the banks sector, both in the Emerging markets but also in Europe, spreading to the US lately.
The OECD today announced it sees evidence of further slowdown as its gauges of future economic activity, with its composite leading indicator for its 34 members, fell to 99.7 from 99.8 in December and continue to point to slowdowns in the US, the UK and Russia, however recent readings show steady growth in the Eurozone, and an acceleration in India.
Since 2008, excessive quantitative easing tools were used, and implicitly reserve balances with federal reserve banks have ballooned in aggregate to over US$% TRN for the FED in, conveniently targeting to inflate equity prices in the process. As soon as these stimulus programs came to an end 6 weeks ago, so too did the rise in stocks. The recent equity market weakness can be linked directly to the decline in liquidity now that the Fed has entered a tightening cycle.
With the start of February, Asian equity markets have entered their period of seasonal strength, which starts in February and typically lasts into late April. As Japanese equities have retraced significantly from their highs in 2015, the BoJ on Friday surprised financial markets with a monetary policy change towards negative rates. The BoJ’s aim was to inflate assets, and to devalue the Yen further, and hence why we are seeing a good investment rational for investors to re-enter Japanese equities at current prices. A closer technical look at the Nikkei-225 shows that is in process of a clear reversal. Our 3- 6 months price target for the $NIKK is 20,150.
Economic focuses this week are on the January ISM report on Monday and the January US and Canadian employment reports on Friday. Technical signs of a bottom and start of an intermediate uptrend in most equity indices, commodities and sectors appeared last week. However, as anticipated, volatility remains high, but declining: another technical sign of improving intermediate prospects.
Apple’s Q4 results which were announced after the market close yesterday were disappointing, and forward guidance by Tim Cook is confirming our past long term views, that Apple’s business & product innovation, its industry lead and business strategy has peaked in 2013. Apple did not grow unit sales y-o-y in any of its major product categories during the crucial Q4 holiday sales. The number of iPhones sold was basically flat from a year ago, Mac unit sales declined -4% y-o-y, and iPad unit sales plunged -25%.
Globally, we are expecting for mixed economic news this week. In the US (US Consumer confidence, New home sales, Chicago PMI, Michigan Sentiment). Focus is on the FOMC meeting on Tuesday. While near-term sentiment towards global equity indices is running at modestly positive levels, the latest sentix survey suggests investors remain deeply cautious on developed and emerging markets from a medium-term strategic perspective.
When it comes to 2015 and our predictions, we were heavily countered by a lot of investors in the US & the UK with disbelief, as we had been most concerned about an increasing slowdown in GDP economic activities in both China and the US. Even as we speak, this morning the IMF downgraded global GDP expectations for 2016 from 3.6% to now a reduced 3.4%. We have 2.9% as a forecast for 2016, and believe that there will be continued concern by financial market participants throughout the 1H of 2016, whether this number can be met.
Barack Obama’s last State of the Union Address of his presidency. While the session following the speech is generally positive for the market, with the S&P 500 Index averaging a gain of 0.09% over the past 50 years, election years have shown a different result. The large-cap benchmark has declined by 0.18%, on average, in the session following the speech during election years, with only 5 of the past 12 events showing a positive outcome. The losses aren’t long-lived, however, with gains averaging 0.62% within one week of the event.
The Russell 2000 Small Cap index was down -20.4% from the peak in June 23rd 2015, crossing the -20% bear market threshold. The $RUT is already below support that represents the neckline of its head-and-shoulders topping pattern. Downside potential is to the 2007 and 2011 highs around 860. The breakdown falls within the period of seasonal strength for small cap companies that runs through to the start of March. Risk aversion is weighing on the notorious January effect when investors tend to take on risk at the start of the year. The $RUT has been underperforming the $SPX since early 2014, seemingly as “leading indicator”.
Our weekly investment strategy advice for investors is: To wait until the dust settles， following last week’s shock events, which we wee predicting as an immediate consequence to Ms. Yellen’s ill timed, rate rise.
Back on December 2nd we temporarily deviated from our long-standing negative view on oil when we wrote that “Absent a new catalyst to drive oil lower through the end of the year, we anticipate a rally in crude and oil-related stocks to emerge and suggest establishing trading positions in the days immediately prior to the December 16th Fed rate decision… Fears of rising production from Iraq, Iran and even Libya coupled with the lack of a new demand catalyst will likely return downward pressure on crude within weeks.
European Automotive and Truck Sector Calendar of Events: January – March 2016
Economic data this week is expected to confirm slowing economic growth in the US. Data will be sufficient to prompt the Fed to increase the Fed Fund rate for the first time in a decade. As indicated earlier, an increase in the Fed Fund rate will set the stage for a significant recovery in North American equity markets over the next three months.
Economic news this week focuses on November Retail Sales. El Nino type weather through this winter is expected to have a positive impact on Industrial Production and the S&P 500 Index (i.e. an extra 3% gain during El Nino winters). The month of December is the strongest month of the year for North American equity indices. However, strength tends to be concentrated during the last two weeks of the month (i.e. Christmas rally period).
US$ tremendously overbought, the US$ index dipped, along with the market, into yesterday’s afternoon trade. The US$ Index sits around 100, a key psychological level that has already shown some weight in restraining upside activity earlier in the year.
We emphasize that this is a “trading call”. As the Euro short-covering rally runs its course, the dollar is likely to recover and stabilize for several weeks, if not longer. We anticipate a rally for oil and oil-related securities to resemble the sharp rise off the August bottom, which faded just as quickly as it began. Fears of rising production from Iraq, Iran and even Libya coupled with the lack of a new demand catalyst will likely return downward pressure on crude within weeks.
In October, global light vehicle sales increased 5.1% yoy to 7.62m, after 2.9% in September, resulting in a 1.5% increase to 73.26m YTD. LMC Automotive (LMCA) calculate that underlying demand continued to strengthen in October, with a SAAR (seasonally adjusted annualised rate) of 92.4m units/year, up 4.0% from 88.8m in September, resulting in a YTD SAAR of 88.2m, up less than 1% from FY14’s 87.4m. The recovery of the October SAAR to levels last seen in December (92.1m) and January (89.4m), is due to a strong recovery in China, supported by continuing strong performances in the US and Western Europe.
International events will dominate all asset classes, as terrorism in several parts of the world remains a focus. Economic news this week is expected to be slightly positive relative to previous reports. US Thanksgiving holiday is on Thursday. US markets are open on Friday, but trading will be exceptionally thin.
We do not share the viewpoint that oil could hit $20 per barrel, as the Saudis not long ago would have us believe. Yet quite a few high profile commodity strategists would also have us believe that the price of oil has nowhere to go but down. There’s some irony in that statement since we’ve written since May that oil prices were headed lower in the near term and would make new yearly lows by October, which they did in August before rallying to, but failing to hold, the $50 level last month. But in our view volatility is likely to remain pervasive as prices head for an eventual unsuccessful retest of the August low of $38. However, longer term we believe that the bigger surprise is that oil prices could recover more strongly than indicated by industry executives or the futures market in 2016 as demand and supply fundamentals could rebalance more rapidly than currently anticipated by market participants. In the interim, oil prices will likely continue to frustrate bulls and bears alike.
For the past 10 months, the global economy has fared increasingly disappointing. And, we continue to see no encouraging signs for the coming 6 – 9 months for any of the major economies, be it in Asia, Europe or the Americas. Additionally, the most tragic events over the weekend in Paris, and the to be anticipated responses by French and European and allies’ intelligence forces are going to put additional stress into families, societies and consumers. We are anticipating significant government retaliatory and future pre-empting measures, which collectively are surely not going to affect the psychologies of European and foreign consumers and tourists and travelers in a positive way.
Today, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development lowered it’s global GDP forecast in its semi-annual forecasting to hit 2% this year, 2.2% next and 2.3% in 2017, and part of the organization’s report said that growth in the US would continue to be among the most robust in the group of nations, hitting 2.4% in 2017. It predicted the 19-nation Eurozone would continue to lag behind the US, with growth at 1.5% this year, 1.8% next year and 1.9% in 2017. Lower oil prices and falling unemployment will bolster economic growth in the 34-nation group of developed economies, helping to offset the impact of a slowdown in emerging economies.
BUY: Based on historic P/E valuation, we calculate a target price of EUR 112 for YE16E. This implies a 21% upside potential from the current share price. The chart technical outlook is positive and the next levels of minor resistance around EUR 93 and EUR 96 should not prevent BMW shares to test their 200-day moving average around EUR 98. (See pp.16-17.)
BUY: Based on historic P/E valuation, we calculate a target price of EUR 110 for YE16E. This implies a 19% upside potential from the current share price. The chart technical outlook is positive and the next levels of minor resistance around EUR 93 and EUR 96 should not prevent BMW shares to test their 200-day moving average around EUR 98. (See pp.15-16.)
The easy money in equity markets and economic sensitive sectors has been made already for the current intermediate up cycle. Q3 reports will have an influence on equity markets again this week. Earnings released to date have been mixed. Beyond the earnings report season, seasonal influences are positive for most equity markets and primary sectors. We advise investors to accumulate seasonally attractive equities and economic sensitive sectors on weakness. Economic data this week focuses on the October employment report on Friday. Consensus is that the report will improve significantly from the exceptionally disappointing in September. Other economic data is expected to be mixed. PMI reports from China and Europe are expected to show a slight improvement over previous reports.
On average during the past 50 years, the S&P 500 Index reached its annual low on October 27th and entered into a period of seasonal strength that lasted until early May. However, exact date for the annual low varies each year by approximately one month either before or after October 27th. The charts below demonstrate.
Economic data this week focuses on the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Consensus is that the FOMC wants to increase the Fed Fund rate to reflect improving economic conditions, but wants more evidence of sustainable growth. We remain convince that there is not enough US intrinsic macro strength, besides global macro weakening, for the FED to raise rates in 2015, and very likely the same for 2016
BUY: Based on historic P/E valuation, we calculate a target price of EUR 105 for YE16. This implies a 33% upside from the current share price of EUR 78.73. Daimler shares are in a positive short- and medium-term upside momentum. (See pp.15-16.)
BUY: Based on historic P/E valuation, we calculate a target price of EUR 103 for YE16. This implies a 43% upside from the current share price of EUR 72.33. (See p.14.)
International news is expected to be relatively quiet this week. Economic data focus in the US this week is on the housing industry.The easy money in equity markets and economic sensitive sectors has been made already for the current intermediate up cycle. Beyond the earnings report season, seasonal influences for equities turn positive. Short and intermediate technical indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of rolling over. Preferred strategy is to accumulate seasonally attractive equities and economic sensitive sectors on weakness between now and the end of the month.
Seasonality Trends February and September have historically been the weakest months for the European major indices, and also for the S&P 500, with December as the strongest. May – September is seasonally weaker for returns as compared to upticks seen in October – May. (Look at page 9 – 13 for the major equities benchmark seasonality charts)