Creative Global Investments

Daimler in the fast lane: 3Q10 results & FY10E-12E

admin — Tue, 02 Nov 2010 05:00:46 +0000

Mercedes-Benz Cars keeps driving earnings upgrade FY10E-12E. Earnings upgrade for FY10E. Our view: At EUR 48.40, Daimler shares are currently valued at 7.9x prospective 2012E earnings, which is at a 32% discount to the 5-year (2004-08) low historic valuation of 11.7x and a 21% discount to the 10-year (1999-2008) low historic valuation of 10.0x. This is inconsistent with the implication that our estimates for 2012E EPS (EUR 6.12), which we do not expect to be peak earnings, are 60% above 2007’s pre- crisis EUR 3.83 and the 10-year average of EUR 3.84 and 98% above the 5-year average of EUR 3.08. (See pp. 24-25 for details.)

Daimler earnings recovery is gaining even more traction

admin — Tue, 05 Oct 2010 05:00:58 +0000

Our view: At EUR 44.60, Daimler shares are currently valued at 7.4x prospective 2012E earnings, which is at a 37% discount to the 5-year (2004-08) low historic valuation of 11.7x and a 26% discount to the 10-year (1999-2008) low historic valuation of 10.0x. This is inconsistent with the implication that our estimates for 2012E EPS (EUR 6.04), which we do not expect to be peak earnings, are 57% above 2007’s pre- crisis EUR 3.83 and the 10-year average of EUR 3.84 and 96% above the 5-year average of EUR 3.08. (See pp. 25-26 for details.) Our indepth report...

Paris Motor Show 2010 – Preview

admin — Tue, 28 Sep 2010 05:00:42 +0000

We are previewing 34 cars and concepts, including concepts for electric scooters by Smart and Mini ␣ There is still a lot of fun and glamour in the industry, with a number of premium products and performance cars on show both as concept and production cars.

BMW zooming off in the fast lane!

admin — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 05:00:40 +0000

Management under CEO Reithofer have taken a highly pro-active business approach and introduced a modular production & development strategy for future products, are accelerating the model momentum and efficiently hedging currency. This has put BMW in a position to better take advantage of external factors such as a strong global recovery in demand and pricing of premium cars, and increased volatility in the currency markets.

Daimler Valuation

admin — Mon, 26 Jul 2010 05:00:43 +0000

A valuation in line with the 10-year low historic valuation of 10.0x implies a share price of EUR 56.71 at year-end 2012E and time-discounted (yield of 10-year Bund) a target price of EUR 53.72 at year-end 2010E, which is 23.3% above the current share price. See our latest company report on Daimler of July 26th.

Global Industrial Manufacturing: Flat Cycle in 2010

admin — Wed, 16 Jun 2010 05:00:42 +0000

Disappointing order trends in 2010 indicate a flat recovery.

BMW 1Q10E preview and tables

admin — Thu, 29 Apr 2010 05:00:45 +0000

Our view: Following a sharp 32% increase from a 2010-low of EUR 28.75 (on February 15th) the BMW share price hit a two-year high of almost EUR 38 on April 26th. The current BMW share price of EUR 36.69 values BMW shares at 11.8x 2011E earnings, which is at a 21% premium to the 5-year average pre-crisis historic valuation of 9.8x. This is inconsistent with the implication that our 2011E EPS (EUR 3.11) are 35% below 2007’s EUR 4.78 and 17% below the pre-crisis 5-year average of EUR 3.74. (See pp.10-11 for details.)

BMW Valuation

admin — Thu, 29 Apr 2010 05:00:00 +0000

Even a valuation in line with the 5-year average pre-crisis historic valuation of 9.8x implies a share price of EUR 30.36 at year-end 2011E and time-discounted (yield of 10-year Bund), a target price of EUR 29.46 at year-end 2010E, which is 19.7% below the current share price and 10% above the previous target price of EUR 26.77. See our latest company report on BMW of April 29th.

Daimler prel 1Q10 results & upgrade estimates and tables

admin — Thu, 22 Apr 2010 05:00:30 +0000

Daimler’s preliminary 1Q10 results: stellar performance at M-B Cars and Daimler Trucks busting FY10 guidance. Management doubled their FY10 outlook for M-B Cars to EUR 2.5-3.0bn and trebled that for Trucks to EUR 0.5-0.7bn. We raised our EPS estimates by 64% to EUR 2.74 in FY10E and by 20% to EUR 3.75 in FY11E. (Final 1Q10 results are due Tuesday, April 27th.)

2Q10 US Equities Strategy

admin — Tue, 30 Mar 2010 05:00:58 +0000

Included in this report is our 2010 Macro Outlook and Beyond, GDP Commodity Price Forecasts, Equities Indices Targets covering Currency Forecasts, Global Equities Sector Outlook, Global Equities Outlook per Country and Global Equities Indices Targets.